Sinister mystery drones are haunting American air bases in the UK. Swarms of similar drones have been flitting around military bases in New Jersey and other parts of the USA. Some say the drones are spying on sensitive areas, others say they are testing air defences. Some think it’s preparation for an all out attack by a nefarious hostile power…
And who’s responsible for these ghost riders in the sky?
You guessed it – the modern day equivalent of Emperor Ming and Davros King of the Daleks all rolled into one demonic figure: Vladimir Putin. Well, that’s the theory of somewhat ironically named ‘intelligence’ officials quoted in the media.
‘It’s a distinct possibility if not a certain probability this is all down to Russian intelligence,’ Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence Colonel, told the Daily Mail. He supports this ‘certain probability’ by arguing that the drone activity has ‘all the hallmarks’ of an operation by the GRU – the Russian military intelligence service.
Ingram continues his insightful analysis: ‘They [Russian Intelligence] and the GRU are just a bunch of petulant little boys. They’re trying to suggest they have the ability to disrupt and influence through a level of nuisance action.’
Not only that, Russia is using these mystery drones to ‘massage Russian tyrant Putin’s bruised ego, after his failures in Ukraine.’[i]
Interestingly, despite Colonel Ingram’s background in intelligence, he seems to have missed the news that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine, Ukraine has no path to victory that doesn’t involve dragging Europe and the US into a nuclear confrontation. And this seems to me an important key to the mystery.
I’m going to argue that we’re witnessing a hysterical mass panic that reflects the anxiety caused by western geopolitical schemes and the fear that these reckless adventures at regime change, colour revolutions and the wars and chaos that follow in their wake, might one day come home to roost…
When Phantoms Attack
What I think we’re witnessing in the US and the UK is a phantom attacker panic. This is when free-floating anxiety and hypervigilance over ambiguous threats leads to a hysterical over-reaction and the creation of an imaginary assailant – a mythical bogeyman in the shadows.
The Halifax Slasher episode of 1938 is a classic example. A spate of mysterious razor blade attacks terrified the community leading to widespread terror and panic, angry vigilante mobs roaming the street and a huge police investigation. The attacks multiplied and spread to other parts of the country. Soom there were slash attacks everywhere – Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham….
However, a Scotland Yard investigation revealed that the ‘victims’ of the attacks had in fact cut themselves and invented the story of the sinister attacker for a variety of motives.[ii] The Halifax Slasher didn’t exist.
There are many other similar panics where a community becomes consumed with the mistaken belief that a malignant assailant lurks in their midst. There’s the Delhi Monkey Man, the London Monster, the Mad Gasser of Mattoon, the Penis Thieves of Nigeria…
However, most relevant to the mystery drones are the phantom airship scares that occurred in the early twentieth century. These steampunk flying saucers haunted the US and the UK in the anxious years leading to World War One. It was feared they were advanced German flying machines engaged in gathering intelligence or some other nefarious mission. All these episodes reflect the fears and anxieties of the times.
Phantom attacker panics often follow a familiar pattern of four phases, so let’s see how this might apply to the mystery drone scare sweeping the US and, to a lesser extent, the UK.
Phase 1: the Latent Phase
This is the background to the panic. There is a sense of anxiety about real or imaginary threats. In the case of the mystery drones, this could be related to the fact that the US and UK governments have helped Ukraine to carry out direct attacks on Russia with Russia threatening consequences for this escalation.
Phase 2: the Breakout Phase
In the breakout phase, the media latches onto a spectacular episode which causes widespread alarm. This leads to people becoming hyper-vigilant to potential threats in their environment. In the case of the New Jersey drones, this seems to have been sightings over the US Army’s Picatinny Arsenal on 18 November. The news reports with speculation about secret testing of military drone technology or hostile foreign powers preparing for an attack caused people to study the night sky – something they would not normally do. They become hyper-vigilant, searching the night skies for threats and at the same time projecting their fears and anxieties onto what they saw.
Human perception is fallible, and many will have likely mistaken regular aircraft or stars or planets as mystery drones.
Another ironically titled British intelligence analyst, Tim McMillan, told the Daily Mail that the drones over Picatinny ‘sound exactly like Russian Orlan-10 drones’ – they have a red light on the right wing, a green one on the left and white taillights. In other words, they are practically indistinguishable from regular aircraft.[iii] Given that this is standard aircraft lighting, it seems to me more likely that people are misinterpreting normal planes for sinister drones.
Phase 3: The Peak Phase
This is the climax of the panic. Reports spread and the whole community become infected with the panic. In the case of the Halifax Slasher and similar episodes, armed vigilantes patrol the streets and business close. In terms of the drone mystery, people are encouraged by journalists to examine the night skies and send in any evidence they capture.
It also seems likely that as word of the mystery drones spread online, many hobbyists took the opportunity to engage in some mischief, adding to the panic by flying their drones at night, possibly in close proximity to sensitive military installations.
During the Peak Phase of a phantom attacker episode, the panic spreads to other areas. This is the stage we appear to be going through at the moment, with mystery drones appearing in other parts of the US and then the UK. If I’m right, this is likely to spread further as the Peak Phase plays out. There may also be vigilantes taking the law into their own hands and taking potshots at lights in the sky. And the ‘experts’ will demand that something must be done.
Phase Four: the Decline Phase
After the peak comes the decline. There is increased scepticism as the panic grows more absurd. Some in academia or the media will start to cast doubt on the events, making it less likely that new episodes get reported….
And then all is forgotten until the next panic comes along…
In the meantime, before the Great Christmas Drone Panic of 2024 blows over, I expect it to spread to other parts of the USA and the world. I predict politicians will seize the opportunity to scare monger about the bogey man with the Russian accent. Or the Chinese one. Or is it the Iranians….?
In any case, something must be done, the wise intelligence experts will argue. And when intelligence experts do stuff, we should be worried.
We’re closer to nuclear confrontation than we’ve ever been, and this is reflected in this outpouring of collective anxiety.
But it will dissipate. It always does. But don’t worry, in troubled times, we will always find some new bogeyman to scare ourselves with…
[i] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14192269/Putins-drones-spotted-Britain-nuclear-weapons.html
[ii] Bartholomew, Robert E., and Weatherhead, Paul (2024), Social Panics and Phantom Attackers: A Study of Imaginary Assailants. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan
[iii] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14192269/Putins-drones-spotted-Britain-nuclear-weapons.html
Paul Weatherhead 